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特朗普关税政策的“变脸”：90天暂缓与对华加码
特朗普总统 recent actions in global trade have once again demonstrated his penchant for unpredictability. On one hand, he has issued a “temporary reprieve” (暂缓令), suspending tariffs on over 75 countries for 90 days. On the other hand, he has escalated tensions with China by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to a staggering 125%. This apparent contradiction in policy has sparked much debate and introspection.
特朗普的贸易策略：胡萝卜加大棒
特朗普’s trade policy is renowned for its tough stance and unpredictability. He often uses tariffs as a bargaining chip to pressure other countries to make concessions in trade negotiations. The recent “90-day reprieve” and “escalation against China” are classic examples of his “carrot and stick” approach.
胡萝卜：暂缓关税，安抚盟友
Facing immense pressure from global trading partners, the Trump administration has shown signs of recognizing the folly of an all-out trade war. By temporarily suspending tariffs on over 75 countries, Trump is attempting to ease trade tensions and prevent a wider trade conflict. This move can be seen as a olive branch to these countries, aiming to secure their cooperation on other issues such as intellectual property protection and market access. The 90-day period also leaves room for future policy adjustments, should these countries fail to meet America’s demands.
大棒：对华关税加码，施压北京
Unlike his approach to other countries, Trump maintains a hardline stance against China. By excluding China from the “temporary reprieve” list and increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump is applying pressure on Beijing to make further concessions in trade talks. The Trump administration has long accused China of unfair trade practices, such as forced technology transfers and intellectual property theft. By raising tariffs, Trump hopes to force China to change these practices and achieve his goal of “fair trade.”
全球贸易战：一触即发，又临崖勒马？
特朗普’s trade policy has the potential to both stimulate American economic growth and ignite a global trade war. Over the past few years, the Trump administration has initiated trade wars with multiple countries and regions, exacerbating global trade tensions and slowing economic growth.
贸易战的风险：伤人伤己
Trade wars have no winners. Increased tariffs ultimately burden consumers with higher prices and reduced purchasing power. They also disrupt global supply chains, increase business costs, and dampen investment sentiment.
For the United States, a trade war also carries significant risks. American businesses rely on global markets, and increased tariffs reduce their competitiveness, leading to decreased exports and lower profits. Furthermore, trade wars can invite retaliation from other countries, further damaging the American economy.
临崖勒马：特朗普的贸易策略？
Despite Trump’s tough stance, he seems to be aware of the risks of a full-blown trade war. The recent “90-day reprieve” may be seen as a sign of his willingness to step back from the brink. By temporarily suspending tariffs, Trump aims to avoid a wider trade conflict and create opportunities for future trade negotiations.
However, Trump’s trade policy remains unpredictable. No one can guarantee that he will not resume tariff hikes after the 90-day period. Therefore, the future of global trade remains shrouded in uncertainty.
贸易阴影下的应对之策
面对特朗普政府的贸易政策，各国应保持冷静和理性，采取务实的应对措施。
加强合作，维护多边贸易体系
In the era of globalization, protectionism only harms the interests of all countries. Nations should strengthen cooperation and jointly uphold the multilateral trade system, opposing unilateralism and protectionism.
深化改革，提升自身竞争力
In the face of external pressure, countries should deepen reforms and enhance their competitiveness. Only by continuously improving the quality of their products and services can they maintain a competitive edge in intense international competition.
多元化市场，降低依赖性
Over-reliance on a single market increases trade risks. Countries should actively explore diverse markets to reduce dependence on a single market and strengthen their risk resilience.
结语：在不确定中寻找确定
特朗普政府的贸易政策给全球经济带来了诸多不确定性。然而，在不确定中，也蕴藏着机遇。各国应积极应对挑战，抓住机遇，共同推动全球贸易朝着更加开放、公平、可持续的方向发展。未来90天，将是全球贸易走向的关键时期。是走向合作共赢，还是走向对抗分裂，我们拭目以待。